Saturday, May 08, 2004

Dashed Dreams

Well my cocky boast of a win streak in the last post cursed me. I dreamed of being in the midst of a record run only to be crushed by my own ego. I logged onto Absolute last night and found basically the same players at the table that I crushed last weekend. My belief that I could destroy them once again, led to my downfall.

Table One – 8 mins., +4BB, +30BB/Hour, 10 hands. This was a maximum 6 player table. I sat down and played while waiting for a seat at a full table to open up. As the numbers show I should have just stayed at this one and played.

Table Two – 63 mins., -25BB, -23.81BB/Hour, 54 hands. I was booted from the table due to a connection problem at one point and I didn’t know what my bankroll was at. When I returned I bought back in for my original buyin and played it down to my loss limit. After reviewing things in Poker Tracker I see that I was chasing cards I had no business chasing. I was staying with stupid things like bottom pair and overcard calling to the river and playing two pair when I knew in the back of my mind I was playing against trips. I was completely ignoring that little voice that tells me what my opponents have. I so thoroughly believed that these players could not beat me that I was just handing them my stack. Time after time I played into them.

Probably won’t play tonight. I’ll have to see if the wife wants to do anything and just kick back and relax. I read a post on RPG that reflected something I was thinking about a few weeks ago. That is “Is there such a thing as too many fish?” The question relates to six or seven players seeing the river. When this happens at least one is going to make their hand and beat you. The consensus of the replies was that this was a fallacy. If you adjust your game you should still be able to beat them. When this occurs you have to loosen up your own game and play looser. This “problem” is why I have quit playing party on the weekends. I’m not sure I agree with the replies on this one. I’m sure you can limit your risk in some ways but how do you draw the line between being a good player whose loosened up and just playing like another fish. I certainly don’t have the experience necessary to comment on this with authority. But that’s my two cents.

I wanted to take a look at my variance so I used my numbers and had excel do up a chart. It looks like my variance is around +-10BB. I have several spikes that hit twenty but when you average things out I’m between 7 and 10. You can see by the chart that when I started playing two tables at once my variance fluctuated dramatically. The inset chart is of my bankroll for .50/1.00 since January 1st. I started in the hole $64 on Jan. 1 but as you can see the trendline shows a nice steady incline.

I took this quote from Iggy’s website. He had it listed at the start of one of his posts. Everytime I sit down at the tables I keep thinking about it so I thought I would share it with you.

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
Napoleon Bonaparte

If ever their was a quote tailored for poker, this has to be it. So many players overvalue their hands and then continue to bet into you. If I don’t play tonight I ‘ll post on Monday. See ya then.