Sunday, January 28, 2007

Poker Gods Spit On Me To Teach Me A Lesson

So after looking forward to the WPBT event tonight I decide to donk off all my chips after only about 2o minutes of play. I tried to outbully a player that held pocket Queens. Not too brite. I wasn't paying attention to the tournament though. And at the time I didn't mind giving away my chips.

Why you ask. Because I was doing very well in the 300K on Full Tilt, that's why. Shortly after the tournament started I doubled up when my quads beat the nut flush. From that point on I managed to stay about twice the average stack until deep into hour three. The competition either got a lot better or my cards got much worse but with about 20 spots to the money I was down to an average stack.

After getting endless amounts of crap and having all my steals played back at I finally found AK in the big blind. It folds around to the small blind who pushes all in. I have him covered by a little over 3,000 chips. So far the few times it's been folded around he has pushed all in. I know he doesn't have a hand here so I make the call. I hit trip A's but the other three cards are 10,9,8 to give his J7 the straight.

I'm devastated. I'm left with 3,000 and the blinds are 500-1,000. I'm royally screwed now. I check the tourney info and I'm now in 304th place with 310 left. I know I have to get chips quickly now because the money starts at 301 and that's all I can play for at this point. Two hands later I pick up JJ and am called by KQ. A King hits the flop and I'm out in 307th.

Looking at the tourney window I see that the money didn't start at 301. It started at 306. I went out on the bubble when I could have at least salvaged my buyin by folding that one hand. You see the game froze when I was eliminated so it could finish all the tables. When play resumed they were down to 305. That's twice now I've cost myself by not taking a moment to look at the tourney window and figure out what's going on.

Hopefully I've learned that lesson.

P.S. Yes I know playing the pussy at the bubble is bad. But considering what I had left that was all I could play for unless I got extremely lucky.

Friday, January 26, 2007

Called Out

I haven't played in a blogger sponsored tournament in quite some time. In fact I don't remember the last one I played in but it was probably in October some time. I really haven't had any plans to play in any in the near future but then I was alerted to this. Miami Don has posted the odds on the 2007 WPBT season and I found myself listed at 10:1.

Now I feel compelled to prove his prognostication as either correct or incorrect. (Incorrect meaning I should have had even lower odds. :) ) So you'll find me at the inaugural event planned for this Sunday night.

In other news the SNG's have started tracking upward again and I have successfully satellited into the FTOPS event #1 after three attempts. I have also played in one qualifier to multiple events but was busted near the bubble when I ran into a cooler.

On a personal note my son's pinewood derby race is Saturday night and we've built our fastest car ever. We're shooting for the win this year so wish us luck.

Monday, January 22, 2007

2nd Century

Things haven't gone as well with the 2nd 100 as it did with the first. I decided to play the $20 SNG's during the last 100 and I've managed to give back my previous winnings and then some. My ITM% has dropped down and with it went the profits. I'm not getting the wins anymore and my 4th place finishes have increased dramatically. It's a small sample size in the great scheme of things and I really won't get a good overall look at my play until I get to around the 500 mark.

Here are the numbers:
Ran: 202
ROI: -4.1%
ITM: 36.1%
Profit: -$136

The graphs tell the tale. My finishes have started to level out across the board and that's never a good thing.

In other news I have slowed down my SNG play to pick up a few MTT's. In the last week I played in seven tourney's and had nice results. I finished 11th in a Full Tilt 11K Guarantee DS, final tabled a $20 Razz tourney on Full Tilt, and final tabled a 2K Guarantee on UltimateBet. Add another lower money finish in an 11K DS and I monied 4 out of 7. Not too shabby.

I'm also going to start a Heads Up SNG challenge. I'm going to take $52.50, which translates to 10 buyins at the $5 heads up level, and play on that. I'll move up when I have 10 buyins for the next level, and drop down when I have lost 10 buyins. Should be fun and give me valuable info at the same time.

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Pain In The Ass

The previous pullouts of the US by poker rooms really didn't have much of an effect on me. The only real loss was Paradise's tournaments and I didn't play on Party much anyway. But now, with Neteller pulling out, that really bites the big one.

It looks like the choices being touted by the poker rooms as replacements are epassporte and click2pay. After doing a little research I've decided to go with click2pay as my new funding choice. I don't like fees and epassporte is all about laying on the fees. With click2pay I can set it up to work like I did with Neteller and live fee free.

Easy choice.

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Final Table Full Tilt $25K

After taking about a month off from the nightly Full Tilt Guarantee I came back with a vengeance last night. The first hour was a roller coaster as I hit a high of 4K in chips but was down to 2K at the first break. I was then moved to a new table that was a dream. I was able to get a quick read on the players and they played the way I expected them to the entire time I was there. This particular mix of players offered some nice opportunities for me and I chipped up by the second break.

The third table I was moved to wasn't as forgiving as everyone had decent stacks and the pot was raised every hand. Fortunately I wasn't there long before being moved to a table with Surflexus. I was able to take the chip lead for a short period of time here when in the big blind I picked up and OESD. It was a battle of the blinds and I called the small blinds all in check raise when he had top pair. I made my straight and enjoyed a nice cushion of chips. Sadly I dealt the death blow to Surflexus when he called my early position raise. I held presto and he couldn't improve his A9.

I began to rest on my laurels a little at this point and that cost me. I started checking my Bloglines feed for updates and surfing around the web. In general, not paying much attention to the game. Before I knew it I was down to just above an average stack and shipped off to another table.

A few hands into the new table I made the critical mistake of the tourney. Not in that it cost me chips, but for another reason I hadn't considered.

Click here to view a larger version.

Now let's break it down. I've only been at the table a few hands and I really don't have a read on anyone yet. When the table chip leader raises I'm not interested in my hand, but when a shorter stack smooth calls I instantly saw this as a good steal opportunity. At this point I don't care what the original raiser is holding. I have enough chips to make him think long and hard about a call here, especially with someone to act behind him. The short stack only had 39K in chips to begin the hand. With the blinds at 2,000/4,000/500 if he likes his hand he should be pushing. I read the call as a descent flop worthy hand but not something he wanted to go broke on.

So with that I attempted the steal. The original raiser does as he's supposed to but after thinking for a while I get the call from the remaining player. I hit the flop but he catches a four flush on the river and now I'm crippled.

Interestingly it's not the loss of chips that hurt me. In fact I manage to suckout twice right away for double ups and then hit a few good hands to put me in better chip position than I was before the steal attempt. What hurt me was that everyone got to see what I did, and what I had. After my quick mini run I found that two players at the table (one of which was the player who called my steal) were not going to let me have anymore pots without playing for my stack. By the time I realized this I was back to an average stack and running card dead.

I had to hold on and be very precise when I tried to pick up a pot from that point forward. This led to being the short stack when we finally got to the final table. I held on till 7th place before pushing with a weak Ace and getting called by KK and an Ace better than my own. Had I taken the time to look at the payouts I would have tried to hold on another orbit to see if the other short stack would bust (The JJ guy from my steal hand). If I could have held on I would have made another $300 or so but I'll take the final table finish and $986.

Monday, January 08, 2007

First Century

I hit the 100 mark in $10 SNG's this month. I've decided to post stats every 100 games, so let us begin.

Ran: 102
ROI: 15.5%
ITM: 40.2%
Profit: $174

ROI graph looks good and the ITM is very steady.

I'm not getting the overwhelming number of firsts I was getting last month. I'm a bit disappointed in that but I'm outdistancing the third place finishes big time which is the most important thing.

You'll notice that if I can get past the middle stages I do pretty well. There are some definite strategies that can be followed now that I'm back in the groove. I'll post more on that later.

Saturday, January 06, 2007

The More They Change, The More They Stay The Same

"MINORITY BILL OF RIGHTS (H Res 6): Voting 222-197, members blocked a Republican bid to add a “Minority Bill of Rights” unveiled in May by then-Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. They noted that although Pelosi called last year for “open, full and fair debate” on most bills, as the new House speaker she was denying GOP amendments to the rules package."

So when the Dems were the minority they wanted this... but now that they have the power, they don't.

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

This Is Not A Poker Post

I couldn't sleep last night. My mind was focused on a short story idea that seemed to come out of nowhere. I kept running it over and over in my head and eventually had to get up and put it on paper. I submit it here for your hopeful enjoyment. It's not long, more of a creative writing exercise.

As the covers slowly rise and fall with the rhythmic sound of her breathing. Her face is so peaceful, so perfect. Watching her sleep is the one thing that always keeps him grounded. His love for her is unconditional, without bounds, the way a fathers love should be.

It is that memory, the thought of her that always gets him through. No matter where his work takes him or how far he has to go, knowing she’s safe and waiting for him to come home makes everything bearable. It’s been difficult. After her mothers death it became even harder for her to see him go. Being left with the Grandparents for weeks, even months at a time was hard. She was strong though, a strength that he could be proud of.

He has much to be proud of. Not only of his daughter, but of his own accomplishments. He was good at what he did. No… He was one of the best. He should be able to take pride in that, but pride is a weakness. He can’t have a weakness. It’s a liability. She is his weakness. They know this. The puppet masters. The dark figures from on high who manipulate not only him, but countless others. Determining the course of world events. Deciding who lives, who dies.

Not that they ever needed her as leverage. He had always followed orders. Done as he was told without question. A soldiers place is not to question but to follow through. Excel at your given task, do it for God and Country.

No, he never questioned orders. Not until now. This was different. This was his country. His home. This presidential candidate was someone special. Never in history had one candidate won with wider margins during a primary. Their views on everything synced with the American public in such a way that everyone had hope. The future would be bright. Hell, maybe even peace on earth and goodwill toward men.

It was his job to end that hope. To silence the one person that even the Corporation feared. Even as he sits in this vacant apartment, rifle ready. He has doubts. A choice has to be made. The life of someone with the capacity to change the world, or the life of his daughter. A choice he shouldn’t have to make. A choice he has to make.

They’re coming out now. The butt of the rifle slides to his right shoulder. Left hand steadying on the stock. He can see her now. As she exits the building her image comes to focus in the scope. She can change the world. Her father must love her. Take pride in her accomplishments. Pride is a weakness.

Forgive me.

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Day Off

Today was my day off so no poker was played. I did play yesterday though and had a nice run at the $10 SNG's. Played 16 of them and ended with 50% ITM and an ROI of 17.6%. Could only manage one win which is a little troubling but I had four seconds. I think I am just not used to being down in the money in 3 or 4 at one time so my attention was divided. That will improve with time. On a side note I ended the day 113th on the leaderboard. Since I didn't play today I've slipped to 418th.

Monday, January 01, 2007

Another Year

Hope everyone had a good new years eve. I was at work, as always. The 80hr. weeks are starting to drain on me. If I don't get relief soon I may just crack.

On the poker front I continued to nose dive and ended the month with a -6%ROI.

Looking Forward...

January Goals

1) Qualify for Gold status Iron Man on Full Tilt

2) Get my SNG ROI to at least 10% playing $10 and maybe $20 SNG's

That's it, short and sweet for January.