The Duece (Statistics)

After dropping back down to the $12 Turbos I've managed to finish up just over 200 of them. That means it's stats time. I've been on a bit of a tread water/slight downturn over the last 80 or so.

I know I've been making some mistakes early in the tourneys. These could be avoided by tightening up a bit more. I'm falling into the rut that usually involves me loosening up and seeing to much post flop play. I don't know if it's boredom induced but it consistently happens when I playing one form of poker exclusively. I'm toying with some RAZZ play on occasion to see if I can mix it up. I might also look into Omaha. We'll see.

Anyway here are the pretty charts and graphs.

Stats:
Ran: 207
ROI: 27.9%
ITM: 45.4%
Profit: $693.90

The ROI/ITM chart really shows the drop off. My 10% drop off in ITM has resulted in a 30% drop in ROI.


The finish distribution is still very acceptable.

Hostess Musical Chairs

Much in the same way Chris Moneymaker fueled the online poker explosion, the World Poker Tour fueled the TV poker scene. Aside from the table action and entertaining commentary the primary reason to watch this program was Shanna Hiatt. Her girl next door looks and charming demeanor won the lustful hearts of many youthful (and dirty old) viewers. It also didn't hurt that Shanna was a former Playboy model with photos easily accessible on the internet. Unfortunately the end of season three also brought the end of Shanna's rein on the WPT.

Cue Courtney Friel. With big shoes to fill Courtney never quite managed to fit in. She was a stiff interviewer and always looked like she was trying too hard. The players as well as the viewers never warmed up to her and after only one season she was gone.

Hopes were high when Sabina Gadecki stepped in for the fifth season. Bringing back the girl next door charm and free spirit she hasn't had enough airtime yet for the fans to make a judgement. Conversely the players had a full season with her and many, if not all, really liked her.

The WPT apparently did not and have replaced her with yet another hostess. Layla Kayleigh brings some television experience to the table via her stints on the G4 network. With knockout looks and a british accent the fanboys should be aplenty. Time will tell if she fits in but I'm thinking she won't. Early interviews seem to point to this just being a stepping stone she can use for exposure. Also having seen her on G4 in the past she has a tendency to let her bitchy side through on occasion.

I don't believe the music has stopped playing so look for a new hostess next year as the game continues.

So You Had A Bad Day

Let's see... 29 SNG's played, 26 Out of the money, 18 in a row without a cash.

I now have a new single worst day ever.

At first I thought I was playing bad, then I thought I was getting sucked out on. I turned to Poker Tracker for the answer and loaded up the 18 consecutive losses. Nine losses were a result of me being behind when the money went in. Two were lost coin flips. Seven were losses where I was at least at 70% favorite.

Lost the ones I should have, couldn't call a coin flip, and lost the ones where I was a heavy favorite.

Bad day indeed.

I've gone from a 30% ROI at the $24 level after 69 tournaments, to a -4.1% ROI after 111 tournaments. I'm not going to bother with the graphs like I usually do because it's just to depressing.

For the immediate future I'm going to step down to the $12 SNG's until I can right the ship.

What Have You Learned

There are a few things you learn about poker from playing a decent amount of SNG's:

1) How to take a beat - Since SNG's are primarily a preflop game you really begin to develop a deep understanding of hand probabilities. Everyone who studies the game knows that there are few preflop dominant hands and nothing emphasizes this more than SNG's. The beats can really seem sick sometimes but if you can't handle them, you won't be a long term winner.

2) There is great value in mid range connectors - This relates back to number one. Do to the preflop nature of the game you will often be seeing all five cards. With this knowledge drawing hands gain value since you cannot be "bet" off your hand on later streets. This has also led to the opening up of my MTT game. Almost every tourney I play now (which hasn't been that many lately) I'm able to effectively trap my opponents and gain a decent chip stack early. This leads to the security needed to play more flops in the mid to late stages.

3) Aggression matters - Although aggression matters in all forms of poker, the SNG is aggression taken to the next level. I would never dream of limping into a pot in a SNG. Fold equity becomes paramount in the later stages and that fact must be exploited at every opportunity.

4) Being a Donkey is a good thing - Ok, hear me out. I don't mean that actually "being" a donkey is a good thing. I mean that if your opponents are incapable of understanding your play and often "call" you a donkey, then that's a good thing. To go along with this... never explain your actions to an opponent. You may have a completely valid reason for playing the way you did, but if his notes on you simply say "donkey", you have an advantage.

These things are paramount to success. Without the knowledge to wield them properly you simply cannot survive the SNG jungle.

We Actually Got Along

What an incredibly nice weekend trip with the family. In fact we were having such a good time we extended the trip a day. Mount Rushmore was nice but I'd have to say I liked the Crazy Horse exhibits better.

Anyway I have a few things to cover here today. First some poker, then I've been "tagged" with that 7 things you didn't know deal.

Poker: A few days off is exactly what I needed. Since getting back I've moved up to the $24 turbos and I've been doing pretty well. When I manage to hit 100 of them I'll post the usual stats.

Tag: Slimeface tagged me and I've decided to actually put some thought into these seven items people probably don't know about me. I try not to post too much personal stuff on here since it's supposed to be a poker blog but here we go. (oh and this could be kinda long winded in spots)

1. When I was younger I was considered to be a talented singer. In the summer of 1986 (the summer after my high school graduation) I toured with a group called America's Youth In Concert. This is an annual tour group that travels across Europe performing concerts. Sadly for me 1986 was also the year that Muamar Quadafi was threatening all Americans traveling outside the US. As a result we toured the east coast and Canada. It did afford me the opportunity to perform at Carnegie Hall and at the 100 year anniversary of the Statue Of Liberty at Ellis Island.

I recieved music scholarship offers from several schools but eventually decided to attend the University Of Wyoming with my friends. While in college we performed Carmina Burana at Lincoln Center. I was also a founding member of the Centennial Singers. After college I never performed again. I think my Dad was always disappointed about that.

2. I once helped a guy who had been shot. After leaving home for college my parents moved to Denver, Co.. So I could havespending money my Dad began delivering the Rocky Mountain News in the mornings. When I got home for Christmas break I took over the route. To deliver the papers I would recline my passenger seat all the way, stack the papers on it, and then stop in front of the houses and chuck the papers from my car.

One morning I saw someone sitting on a porch and they began stumbling to my car when I stopped to throw the paper. I assumed the guy was drunk and had locked himself out of his house. I rolled down the passenger window to ask if he needed help and he immediately opened my door and collapsed into the seat. He told me he had been shot and asked me to take him to the hospital. Problem was I didn't live there and had no idea where a hospital was. The guy also reeked and kept punching the roof of my car from the reclined seat. He also kept calling me "Curly" for some unknown reason. If I had curly hair or was even bald it would make sense, but I had long straight hair at the time.

Not having a clue where I was going I just went to the first major street and started flying down the road looking for a cop. The whole time the guys screaming, "Help me Curly!", and bleeding all over the papers. I eventually blew by a cop traveling in the opposite direction. I was going about 40MPH over the speed limit and the cop didn't even hit his brakes and try to pursue me. I had to turn around and chase him down. When the cop finally stopped I got out and ran to him. He looked over to my car and since the passenger seat was reclined he didn't see anyone. Eventually the guy punched the roof again and the cop saw his arm. He called for backup and waited for them to arrive before getting out of his car.

It turns out the guy had been shot five times by his girlfriend and had wandered for about two miles banging on doors trying to get someone to help him. After the Ambulance took him away I drove the police to the house where I found him. The woman in the house told the police someone was banging on the door. When she looked out she saw two men push a guy into a sedan and drive away... So much for credible eye witness reports.

Afterwards I salvaged all the non bloody papers and finished the route.

3. I was kicked out of college after the first year. During my first semester I pledged to Sigma Nu fraternity and quickly discovered alcohol, partying, and smoking. Since I have an addictive personality this took over my life and I quit attending all but two of my music classes after about a month. At the end of the semester I had only passed four classes. These were my two music classes as well as Macro Economics and Political Science. I had the option to make the final count for 100% of my grade in the later two classes so that's how I passed them. (yeah, I'm that smart)

I began the second semester on academic probation. This didn't matter to me though because I had now discovered drugs. Not hardcore drugs but weed and mushrooms mostly. These began to consume my life and during the second semester I only passed my two music classes.

I was summarily booted from college and pissed away all of my opportunities. Two years later I attended a business trade school specializing in computer courses. I graduated that with a 4.0. Since then I haven't done any drugs and I don't drink but maybe twice a year at social functions. I also quit smoking in 1999 for the birth of my daughter.

4. I tried cocaine once. I liked it so much I knew I could never do it again.

5. I don't like people. Most of this stems from the fact that I am now an introvert. This flies in the face of my youth as I was very outgoing and personable. I believe it all stems from the fact that after my first marriage ended I traveled for about a year with the company I work for. Most of this time was spent in South America and Spain. Since I don't speak Spanish, when I wasn't working (with an interpreter) I would be sightseeing and wandering alone. I spent so much time alone and in hotel rooms that even now I believe as long as I had my laptop and internet access I could live alone on a deserted island and be perfectly happy.

6. I am now on my second marriage and have three wonderful children. If I was ever to get divorced again I would never remarry. (see post above).

7. My current wife thought I was gay when she met me. Since I don't go out of my way to talk to people my wife had to approach me to ask me out (she thought I could be her safe gay guy friend). Let me explain: I lived in a town house community at the time and my roommate was also a coworker. He was also somewhat of an introvert and neither of us talked to our neighbors or got to know anyone. Everyone would just see two guys who were always fairly well dressed who were in their early thirties living together. They just assumed we were gay. Had they ever seen the inside of the town house they would have seen the carnage of a typical bachelor pad, but of course no one ever did.

My son from my first marriage lives with me during the summer and my wife was the lifeguard at the complex pool. She would see us at the pool together all the time and since everyone told her I was gay she just believed it. She invited my son and I to go the the county fair with her and her son. Two weeks later I was practically living at her place and the rest is history.

I guess that about does it.

The Other Shoe

Have you ever known things were going so well that something bad just had to happen?

It's really inevitable. The good side of variance leaves you wondering when things will finally swing to the bad side. I've often felt this way, but not on the magnitude that I've felt it lately. I've wondered about it so much that I've been very tentative about playing. I have this fear that I'll go on this horrible run and lose all the scratch I've built up over the last few weeks. It's resulted in my pushing some edges I just shouldn't be pushing.

I'm down. Not a whole lot mind you. I've been burning about $50 a day so I'm not bleeding out, just steadily losing fluid. My mindset is kinda screwed right now. Fortunately the family is taking a weekend trip to Mt. Rushmore (paid for with poker winnings) so I'll have 3 days of no poker play. That should help clear things up and I can start fresh next week.

Statistical Anomoly

Even after mentioning my incredible run it has continued. Deep down I know I'm running on the very high end of variance but damn I hope it last forever.

With the completion of my first 100 $12 Turbo SNG's I present the stats:

Ran: 100
ROI: 57.6%
ITM: 56.0%
Profit: $690.90

Told you I was running well. That works out to $36.17 an hour, by comparison I should really be at around $12 an hour based on my performance at the $6.50 SNG's.

It's not all blind luck and winning coin flips. I've really felt that I've been on top of knowing when to switch gears. I've adapted very well to my tables lately and that has really been a boost to the confidence level. Confidence fuels ones innate abilities and that's always a good thing.

The Screenshots tell the tale.

Superstition

I almost hate to post this. I'm running so incredibly hot in the SNG's right now I'm afraid if I tell anyone I'll crash and burn.

My sample size is still low for the $12 turbos. 60 tourneys to be exact. In that 60 I've managed a 53.3% ITM and a 44.4% ROI. That comes out to over $26/hour when I'm playing. That's a slight bit more than I make in my real job.

When reality decides to snap back I should settle down to a more believable 20% ROI. The run is nice, and I hope it lasts, but all good things do eventually come to an end. The players are a bit worse at this level than they were at the $6.50 turbos. I suppose most recreational players play the $12's and those that are struggling to really learn play the $6.50's. It's not all that suprising that it works out that way.

Anyhoo, my good fortune has resulted in some good bankroll building and I'm now at $1,038.08. It took me 49 days to go from $300 to just over $1,200 (I withdrew 200 a few weeks back). That is certainly a lot faster than I did it when I started this blog way back when. I will therefore consider this bankroll building experiment a success!

Recent Success

I've been on a bit of a tear lately. Last night playing in the PSO league and also in The Mookie I managed to final table both. In the league event I was a dominant chip leader through most of the tournament and then got unlucky at the final table. In The Mookie I held the chip lead as well for quite a while but then I tightened up to much when we were down to the final two tables. This left me without enough ammo to mount much of a fight at the final table.

The two events were eerily similar.
PSO League:
71 entrants
180 Minutes of play
7th place

The Mookie:
73 entrants
182 Minutes of play
6th place

Pretty weird huh?

Anyway the $12 turbo SNG's have also been going well and my bankroll has seen exponential growth this week. I'm now up to $908.70.

Let's see how long it takes to give it all back :)

300

No this is not a review of the movie. I haven't even seen it. Instead I've reached the 300 milestone in $6.50 Turbo SNG's. Things have gone well so far and I think it's time to take a shot at the $12 SNG's. I've played a few already and I don't see a difference in the quality of play so I'll expect to maintain my previous results.

Stats:
Ran: 300
ROI: 18.5%
ITM: 42.3%
Profit: $361.20

Both my ROI and ITM have increased slightly over the last 100 SNG's so that a good thing.



I've also managed to lower my 4th place finishes and picked up the slack with 3rd place finishes. First is where you want to be but I'm glad to get over the 4th place finish hump.



Here is my winnings graph just because it looks purrty.

I'm Back?

Last nights Riverchasers tourney was a very fun, and very educational experience.

Staying true to my word I began the event with a much looser range than I normally would. I did not stay as passive as I had intended as the players were allowing me to be both loose and aggressive. It was quite the eye opening experience taking this tact from the very beginning. It also helped that I had hoyazo at my table for most of the time. He stated that he would be playing tighter than a mouses ass till we reached the points so I took advantage of his big blind at every opportunity. He only played back at me once and I went ahead and released my hand. He then showed "the hammer", but I'm alright with that. I took much more from him than I gave.

I found that in order to really play this style I had to pay much more attention to my opponents than I usually do. I always try to pick things up, but this time I really had to put my opponents on ranges. This worked out swimmingly and I was able to adapt to each player pretty easily.

There were only three hands throughout the entire tournament where I knew preflop what I wanted to accomplish, and how I was going to play post flop. Of these three hand I played one incorrectly and won, played one correctly and won, and finally played one correctly and lost. I've thought about discussing the one I played incorrectly but I'm going to wait and see if any other bloggers mention the hand before I address it. This is the first hand in the tournament that hoy actually used the chat window so it may be mentioned.

I hit a real rough spot near the end where I thought I would bust out before the money. I made a correct read and got unlucky. This left me last in chips but the same player later doubled me up to put me in the top 3 so it worked out.

When we hit the final table I decided to approach it like I would a SNG. This led me to make some plays that others may have viewed as reckless or incorrect, but I was shooting for first place and I was going to do what I thought I needed to get there. This worked out for me until we were down to the final three. I had 65% of the chips in play at this point

Dry Patch

In consideration of my recent MTT drought I've decided to completely rework my game.

Up until this point my strength has been preflop play. I've done an adequate job in the past and posted some decent yet moderate results. I also believe this is why I tend to play the SNG's well. They are primarily (especially in the turbo's) a preflop game.

My admitted achilles heel is postflop play. Although I've admitted this before nothing was ever really done to correct the issue.

Now I'm taking drastic steps. I'm going to adopt a preflop strategy that would be considered by many "experts" to be that of a donkey. That is to say I'm going to become a loose passive preflop player. Or as I like to call it, "Starting Hands By Gavin Smith". Now I'm no expert, but I'm also not an idiot. I'll try my best to avoid total domination situations unless of course I feel I can get paid off when my hand hits.

This new line will force me to become more comfortable with postflop play in MTT's. The structure of online tournaments generally does not leave much wiggle room in stack to blind ratios. If I can build a stack early I should be able to exploit more situations. This will also more than likely lead to earlier exits than I'm used to. Of the rooms I currently play at UltimateBet offers the best early round structure. They also offer a decent quantity of low buy in events so I'll mostly play there.

As always wish me luck and we'll see if I can learn something along the way.

Really

Upon reading Negreanu's latest blog post I said to myself, "Gee your life must suck."

Change of Pace

My rakeback payment was deposited into my Full Tilt account the other day. I knew it was going to drop since I had dropped my limits but I didn't realize the extent of the... ummmm... droppage?

A glorious $26.22 in rakeback was all I mustered last month. It would probably serve me better to work on my UltimateBet bonus than work toward the rakeback.

The SNG's have continued to work well for me but I'm dumping all my profits into losing MTT's, so I'm not making much progress. I'm also starting to grow weary of continuous SNG's and I've been feeling that itch to play the cash games again.

With that in mind I decided to play at UB and clear some of my bonus playing NL. I wanted to control my bankroll and considering my previous cash game records I decided to play a single table of $25NL. After 569 hands I had lost $7.44. Actually not to bad considering I was down about $50 at one point. I've forgotten the frustration of grinding out the small pots only to make one mental error and lose it all. Fortunately I cleared $5.89 in bonus so it was close to a break even endeavor.

I think I'll still play the cash game one or two days a week though so I can have some variety.

Oh, before I forget. Due to my oldest boy getting a myspace page I decided to get one as well. I'm going to use for personal blogging and the poker content will stay here. Feel free to check me out at my MySpace page.

bankroll: $357.92

Don't know why I bother playing this stupid ass idiotic fucked up poor excuse for a game anyway.

One Of Those Days

Today was one of those days that you wish would never happen. Every move is wrong, every dominant hand is cracked. It happens, It sucks, Get over it.

Bankroll: $285.87

I hope the Mookie turns out better

Hoy Lesson Learned

Never Ever... Ever... believe that your opponent might actually not make a donkey move just because it's a blogger tournament. Always think of your opponents in the lowest common denominator and you will be fine.

Lesson Learned

Disconnect Blues

I've played several MTT's this week with little success. I haven't played any in a while so it took a little adjustment switching from the SNG mentality.

In the short term my journey back to the MTT realm has been negative EV. Last night marked my first cash of the week and I did it in true grinder fashion as the best hand I saw preflop was pocket nines. It took everything I had to not get impatient and blow away my chances. In the end I went out 74th in a field of 826 for a small cash.

The SNG's continue to treat me well but I've been bitten by the MTT bug. As much as I'd like to play some every night I'm going to stick to the Blogger tourneys for the most part. At least until my bankroll is to a more comfortable level.

bankroll: $351.77

Current Build - 200

I've gone over the 200 mark in SNG's since restarting the bankroll. So far things are running very smoothly. I've mixed in a few $12 and $24 SNG's when I was rushed to make my full tilt points a few times. These are still outside my bankroll but I was fortunate enough to not lose to much when I played them.

I spent a bit to much on tournament entry fees over the last week so I gave back about a $100 in bankroll that I really couldn't afford. I am still up though from my last bankroll entry on March 27th so I can't complain too much.

Stats:
Ran: 207
ROI: 16.6%
ITM: 41.1%
Profit: $259.80

My ROI and ITM is down just slightly from my 100 SNG mark but I'm staying pretty consistent. Consistency is good.


The finish distribution is flushing out a little more now. My wins are increasing but so are my fourth place finishes.

Answers

I haven't played much poker over the last few days. I had to take my mother to the hospital on Friday. She has chronic back pain and she was having pain which was more severe than usual. She's still at the hospital but I should be able to take her home tomorrow.


I've gotten a few comments that I would like to address in lieu of poker content.

First up was Grinder who posed the following comment:

"I'm surprised your ROI is only 17% when you ITM is 42%. Seems you should be winning more often. I wonder if you are playing too tight so you are getting ITM with a small amount of chips instead of begin the whale."

I will admit to playing a bit tighter near the bubble than I used to. A year ago I would have been attacking as much as possible at the bubble but I've since felt a slight adjustment was needed. That's not to say I am a nit who has the smallest stack when the money hits. I would estimate that about 75% of the time I am not the short stack when the final three are left. With that said I am not the biggest either most of the time. The majority of the time I am in second place and I'm quite comfortable with that.

In the post the comment referred to I had a frequency of finishes: 1st=14.4 2nd=13.5 3rd=14.4
This is pretty flat, but now that I've added another 80 tourneys it looks a bit different: 1st=16.1 2nd=11.7 3rd=13.9
My current ITM is 41.7% and the ROI is 19.6%

Brian then posed the following:
"Good stuff, but one thing I might suggest is that you worry a little bit less about your day to day results."

hmmm... I'm not. I would consider this blog to be of the "diary" variety as opposed to a "strategy" one. If you look back through the archives to the beginning of this blog you would see that I often posted daily results in the beginning. Since I've made a point out of starting over with my bankroll and "beginning again", I've decided to follow in the same vein and try to post a "diary" of the play on a daily basis.

I can see how this might be misconstrued as results oriented. I will admit that after a brutal day of losses it is difficult to look at the big picture, but I've been around long enough to know that it's the cumulative that matters, not the immediate.

Well that's it. Go read one of the guys I mentioned above. Go on. Scram. Git. Scidaddle.