Indicator that your playing above your comfort level: How about losing 2 1/2 buyins in 621 hands. I then dropped down 2 levels and have since gone up 2 buyins in 687 hands.
Indicator that your finally hitting your groove: MTT's can be a drain on the psyche as well as the bankroll. The level of variance is well documented and my experience has been no different. The key is to feel secure in your own play and believe that you are making the correct decisions. I finally reached that feeling this week. It's taken a few weeks of play but I definitely feel I'm back in form after my extended MTT absence.
Indicator that you didn't play much in January: I received my rake back payment for January, it was $6.41. 'nuff said.